21.6.16

Last week

In this post we describe the forecast obtained using the information available up to today. We should notice that the data source for the survey model (the multinomial logit for voting intention as a function of demographic characteristics of the voters) are the data of the large pre-electoral of CIS (#3141) that is already available, instead of the barometers of July (2015) up to April (2016) which was the data source until the previous forecast. Figure 1 depicts the distributions of the survey model (red), the polls model (green) and the synthesys (blue).
Figure 2 shows the distribution of seats with the 90% confidence interval around the median (the small black vertical bar in the x-axis)
As in previous weeks we have also calculated the probability of absolute majority for the combination PSOE-Unidos Podemos. Figure 3 shows the distibution. The probability of this coalition to get the absolute majority is 52%.
Finally, figure 4 depicts the distribution and the probability of absolute majority for the coalition PP+Ciudadanos. In this case the probability is 14%.
Tomorrow, or better said later today, we will post the distribution by provinces and the trends in the polls.